ADB cuts India’s FY22 economic growth forecast to 10%

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The Asian Development Bank (ADB) on Tuesday downgraded India’s economic growth forecast for the current fiscal to 10% from 11% projected earlier this year. The downgrade was mainly on account of the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic.

India’s GDP growth recovered to 1.6% in the last quarter of fiscal ended March 2021, narrowing contraction in the whole fiscal year from 8% estimated in April to a revised 7.3%, the multilateral funding agency said.

“Then a second wave of the pandemic induced many state governments to impose strict containment measures. New Covid-19 cases daily peaked at more than 4,00,000 in early May, then fell to a little over 40,000 in early July. Early indicators show economic activity resuming quickly after containment measures eased. The growth projection for FY2021 (ending March 2022), downgraded from 11% in ADO 2021 to 10%, reflects large base effects,” it said. The Asian Development Outlook (ADO) Supplement was released in April.

The inflation forecast for Asia and the Pacific this year has been raised to 2.4%, from 2.3% in April, reflecting rising oil and commodity prices. The projection for 2022 remains at 2.7%, ADB added.

For South Asia, the inflation forecast has been raised for 2021 to 5.8% from 5.5%, mainly reflecting a higher forecast for India. However, it has been kept unchanged at 5.1% for 2022.

Indian consumer price inflation rose to 6.3% year-on-year in May as both food and fuel inflation outpaced expectations.