Economy recovery tracker up for the fifth consecutive week: QuantEco
There is a gradual but steady decline in the CMIE unemployment index mirroring expanding economic activity
The Daily Activity and Recovery Tracker (DART) Index of research agency QuantEco detected expansion in the economic activity in the country for the fifth consecutive week ending June 20, raising hopes that the economy is breaking free from the grip of the second wave of Covid-19 pandemic.
The index clocked an expansion for the fifth consecutive week, rising by 5.6% week on week. However, the pace was a bit slow compared to the double-digit growths recorded in the two earlier weeks.
The rise was 13.6% for the week ended June 6 and 11.4% for the week ended June 13.
The agency observed that the DART index has risen by nearly 40% from its lowest levels but remains ~20% below pre-pandemic baseline of 100 overshot in Feb-21/early Mar-21.
Unemployment down
The unemployment rate as measured by the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) also steadily continued its downward journey with the 30-day all-India moving average moving down to 10.60% on June 21 from 11.75% on June 14.
“The DART Index underscores continued unlocking of economic activity with the index rising to its highest level in 10 weeks (at 82.7 vs. 78.3 a week ago) for the week ending June 20, 2021,” said the weekly report on the economy from QuantEco.
According to Yuvika Singhal, economist of QuantEco, the signals have been rather mixed with 60% excess rainfall in the past week adversely affecting some of the indicators.
Mobility fatigue
“Most of the mobility indicators saw some fatigue in the pace of improvement, but rail passenger movement and online restaurant searches continue to rev up at a fast pace. Marginal deterioration was seen in indicators of – rail freight, electricity generation and unemployment rate,” the report noted.
One of the encouraging signs was the fact that E-way bills (that measure the movement of goods in the country) and ‘grocery and pharmacy’ related mobility rose above pre-pandemic baseline, said the report.
The agency also noted that if the vaccine momentum over the past few days is sustained it would by the “most potent support possible to economic recovery”.