Scanty rains, reservoir low water levels might impact Rabi crops

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Rainfall, or rather lack of it, has tormented a large number of the country’s economic policymakers for most parts of the rainy season. Now that the southwest monsoons are officially on the retreat, the scare of scanty rains continues to hound them.

Even in October rainfall deficiency of more than 32.6% has been reported across India. This, together with low levels of water in major reservoirs, might impact the sowing and eventually the yield of primary rabi crops that could keep up the upward pressure on inflation figures, the biggest headache for Reserve Bank of India this season. Wheat and masoor dal are among the major winter crops that are crucial for the nation’s kitchen and household budgets.

Chief economist ICRA, Aditi Nayar, was of the opinion with lower levels of water in the big reservoirs, farmers would be more dependent on timely rains for the sowing of Rabi crop. “Late sowing could affect sentiment and exacerbate stickiness in pulses and cereal inflation,” she said.

A look at the granular inflation data reveals the cause for concern. Despite food inflation rising at a more sober 6.56% in September compared to 9.94% in August, pulses and product prices zoomed by a huge 16.38% in September. This rate for pulses and product prices was 13.04% in August. And spices recorded a rate of inflation of more than 23%.

The water storage data in 150 major reservoirs in the country in the month of October was markedly low compared to that in 2022. The bulletin of the Central Water Commission issued on October 26, was 80% of the live storage of the corresponding period of last year and 92% of the storage levels of the average of the past 10 years.

The states that recorded lower storage of water include Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Rajasthan, Bihar, Nagaland, Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala and Tamil Nadu. The concerns are higher due to the fact that the all-India average maximum temperature in October was third highest since 1901, the IMD said.

Scanty rains were the most pronounced in the southern peninsula and central India. These two regions recorded deficiencies of 60.4% and 60% respectively on October 31, said India Meteorological Department. In northwestern India, rainfall was 44.4% more than normal. Eastern India, however, recorded 9.1% more rains than normal in October.

During the current financial year, both the RBI governor and finance ministry officials have kept cautioning about the impact of the El Nino effect on inflation. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the US national weather agency recently said that as much as 21.6% of India (especially northern, eastern and coastal south-western parts) was labouring under drought conditions.