Third wave alert: Alarming surge in Covid-19 cases, Kerala epicentre
India is likely to see a rise in Covid-19 infections, building into a new, though smaller wave, that may peak in October.
The alarming surge in Covid cases in Kerala is indicating another spike in the pandemic. Fresh Covid cases on a week-to-week basis have seen a rise after 12 weeks. The steep rise in cases at present is limited mainly to Kerala.
India is likely to see a rise in Covid-19 infections, building into a new, though smaller wave, that may peak in October. The forecast was based on a mathematical model by researchers earlier this year who had predicted the tapering of a brutal surge of cases.
“The country may see a worsening of the situation as soon as this month, with the next wave peaking in the best-case scenario with less than 100,000 infections a day, or nearly 150,000 in the worst scenario, according to estimates by researchers led by Mathukumalli Vidyasagar and Manindra Agrawal at Indian Institute of Technology in Hyderabad and Kanpur, respectively.”
Weekly decline snapped
India recorded just over 2.86 lakh new cases in the week ending Sunday (July 26-August 1), a 7.5% rise from the previous week’s tally of 2.66 lakh. Weekly cases in the country have registered a rise for the first time since May 3-9, when the second wave peaked, according to a report in The Times of India.
The fall in cases had continued till last week, even though the decline had slowed to 1.4%, it added.
Alarming surge in Kerala
Kerala, the current epicentre of the pandemic in India, recorded 20,728 fresh Covid-19 cases on Sunday, pushing the infection caseload to 34,11,489. It is for the sixth consecutive day that the state has recorded more than 20,000 fresh cases.
It logged close to 1.4 lakh cases in the present week, a 26.5% increase from the previous week’s tally of 1.1 lakh.
The state accounted for nearly half (49%) of all new cases in the country in the last seven days, with a daily average of 20,000 new cases.
Neighbours worry
Neighbouring states are worried that infections are spreading from Kerala.
Karnataka recorded a 17.3% increase in new cases as compared to the previous week, although the rise hasn’t been much in absolute numbers, according to the report in The Times of India. In Tamil Nadu, the weekly case count remained the same as in the previous week — 13,090 cases as compared with 13,095 in the previous week, it added.
On the positive side, Maharashtra’s weekly numbers declined by 6.2%, following a 10% dip in the previous week.