What to expect from G20 meeting

There are high hopes from G20 meeting for the overall macro economy as well as the banking and financial
sector. However, the question is whether expectations will manifest themselves. China’s President Xi
Jinping is not coming to the meeting. This might create an opportunity for India to become the flag bearer
of the global south as both India and China are vouching for that. Besides this Russia-Ukraine war will be
one of the major talking points and all the members may not agree on a joint statement in that regard.

Another major issue will be the revamping of multilateral institutions like the World Bank, IMF. Currently,
it is perceived that these institutions favor the needs of developed countries over the rest of the world.
For quite some time, emerging countries have been pressing for changes in these multilateral institutions
to make them more just and adapt to the complex changing dynamics of an interconnected digital global
economy. Currently, it seems more like wishful thinking by emerging countries and it may take a long time
to bring any changes in these institutions.

Another talking point is debt relief for low-income countries. Low-income countries are in no position to
repay debt but providing them with relief is very complex as it is not just in the hands of multilateral
agencies. China has also provided large amounts of loans and so does private financers like banks.
Providing relief requires cooperation among these sets of players.

Framework for cryptocurrency and startups are also on the card. For crypto and digital currency,
regulations are possible and feasible only on a global level.

On startups, common ground may be reached regarding the definition and basic framework for them.
However, populism and protectionism are on the rise across the globe. Hence, countries might give
preference to their domestic startups (In the form of higher subsidies, tax benefits etc.) over that of other
countries. This might lead to some disagreements and that can impact the growth of startups at a global
level.

Talking about disagreements, trying to weave all the countries together amidst fragmentation is going to
be the core of talks as that is the theme of G20 meeting. This is interesting because India itself has acted
as a mercantilist recently by curbing the export of various commodities.

On a side note PM Modi will have 15 bilateral talks with countries like US, UK, Germany, EU. This is
happening at a time when India is involved in FTA (Free Trade Agreements) negotiations with EU, UK and
there are some disagreements (Investment treaty and IP protection are among major ones). Resolution
during G20 bilateral meetings is not likely and it may be a while before India signs a new FTA with EU, UK.