Your meals are set to become pricier, thanks to the heat

The year began with a promising start regarding the monsoon, but now, the harsh intensity of summer heat is a concern for everyone. This heat is expected to adversely impact us not just physically, but also economically.

According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), there will be over 10-20 days of extreme heatwave between April and June, which is twice the number recorded last year. It is expected to reach unprecedented levels and set new records of temperatures. Scientists warn that these extreme conditions will make it difficult for human to survive normally.

Experts also fear reduced supply of few essential commodities like wheat, coffee, dairy products, and even the prized fish Hilsa. However, wheat, a key cereal has largely been spared from this intense summer heat. The majority of the crop was either harvested or is at a growth stage less susceptible to heat-related yield losses.

Not only the price but the taste of your food is going to be a little different due to extremely hot weather, irrespective of your palate being vegetarian or non-vegetarian. There can be an expected shift in the supply chain and surge in price.

The connection between heat and increasing food costs is straightforward — when wheat crops begin to wither and fail, it’s safe to say hat the price of flour will rise.

Effects of raising temperature on wheat

The upcoming heat season is expected to have a significant impact on key staples like wheat and vegetable. The effects are already becoming apparent since March.

As reported by Business Standard, recent research conducted by Uncharted Waters suggests that a cold winter followed by a hot spring can lead to a substantial decrease in wheat yields, potentially by around 20% in major wheat-producing states. This reduction is notably higher as compared to years that have experienced consistently hotter or colder temperatures.

The study concludes that this decline could result in a 5-10% reduction in overall wheat production. Typically cultivated during the winter months, wheat is harvested by the end of spring, before high temperatures can negatively impact grain filling and suppress yields. However, if wheat is planted late or experiences slower growth due to below-average temperatures, coupled with the premature arrival of summer heat, it can cause significant harm to the crop.

The positive aspect is that this year,  the wheat crop was already matured, so the temperature did not effect it a lot in many regions.

However, the wheat crop could fall prey excessive rains, hailstorms and global warming or thunderstorms.

As temperatures soar, the risk of food getting spoiled quickly rises. Inadequate cold storage facilities heighten the possibilities of fruits and vegetables spoiling due to heat-induced damage. Additionally, milk supplies deplete faster during hot weather, increasing the dependency on powdered milk or stored milk, hence affecting their supply and prices.

The rising temperatures pose a significant risk of water scarcity for cattle, potentially leading to a decline in milk supply this year. The anticipated heatwave is expected to take a toll on water availability, affecting the entire dairy industry. Consequently, the dairy sector will become increasingly reliant on stocks of skimmed milk powder (SMP) to meet regular demands.

Fishing in India will also get affected by the heatwaves, according to one of its assessment reports, the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) stated that the adverse impacts of climate change will result in reduced production of commercial fish species like Hilsa and Bombay Duck.

India’s Robusta coffee prices have soared to an unprecedented level, exceeding Rs 10,000 per 50-kg bag, amid shrinking supplies. This year’s production has encountered challenges due to irregular rains, drought, and El Nino-induced heat waves. With global supplies under strain, Indian markets have experienced a surge in anticipation of rising demand. India ranks as the sixth-largest coffee producer in the world.

Indian agricultural sector under heatwave

The high temperatures and heatwaves have disproportionately impacted farmers, especially those with limited shelter from the intense heat, leading to their crops wilting under the scorching sun. According to experts, climate change will worsen the price spikes in food crops in India.

A Business Standard report highlighted that between May and June last year, the prices of typical food items had nearly tripled. Looking ahead, an analysis by the IPCC warned that rice, wheat, pulses, coarse grains, and cereal yields could decline by nearly 9% by 2050. Additionally, maize production in southern regions of the country could plummet by almost 17%

“These disruptions to crop production are expected to cause price spikes in India, threatening food affordability, food security and economic growth,” IPCC was quoted saying.

The Indian government is actively working on implementing strategies and on-the-ground initiatives to promote climate-resilient agriculture. One of these initiatives is the National Mission for Sustainable Agriculture (NMSA), which is one of the eight missions outlined in India’s national action plan on climate change. The mission also aims to enhance productivity, sustainability, profitability, and resilience to climate change in agriculture. Its primary objective is to enable Indian farmers to prosper while fulfilling the demands of a expanding population.

While a variety of factors, including disruptions in the supply chain and shortages of labor, have contributed to this rise, the intensifying heat will continue to drive up food prices, with the situation expected to deteriorate further.