Gold prices unlikely to come down further, say experts

Though gold imports into India surged to a record 471% to 160 tons in March, experts are ruling out prices of gold to tumble further. Even if the price of gold comes down a bit from the present levels, the import would have nothing to do with it, they said.

The price of gold stood at Rs 45,500/10 gms in the weekend. Though its price rose to Rs 58,360 in August 2020, it has gradually come down to the current levels.

The import in January-March quarter was at a record 321 tonnes, up 159% from 124 tonnes in the same period a year ago.

The price of the yellow metal might come down a bit. But even if that happens, it would be more due to the second wave of COVID or if periods of lockdown follow and not due to this huge import,” said Bablu Dey, a leading retailer of Kolkata.

“Usually India imports almost 1,000 ton of gold annually. Therefore, the March import alone is not significant enough to bring down the prices. The import figures in the earlier quarters were less due to the pandemic. The government is now trying to make up this gap. However, the import is not likely to bring down the price,” said Arindam Saha, former eastern regional head of MCX.

Another official of a commodity exchange said on conditions of anonymity that according to his opinion, the price of gold would remain stable in the domestic market in the Rs 44,000-45,000 range.

“The prices of gold depends on a number of conditions such as inflation, interest rates, currency fluctuations, corelation with others assets, a good monsoon, government reserves etc. I don’t think the imports in March will bring down the prices,” said the official.

However, he said that imports could result in a rise in India’s trade deficit.

In February, India reduced import duty on gold from 12.5% to 7.5% to boost retail buying.

Dey said they are apprehensive that another phase of lockdown may depress the demand of gold.