Auto sales, poll results & Covid cases will impact markets

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Local and global macroeconomic data, March quarter earnings, Covid updates, global cues and state election results are some of the key factors to guide the stock market in the coming week. Besides, the movement of the rupee against the dollar and crude oil prices, the trend in global stock markets will dictate the trend on the bourses in the near term. Investment by foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) and domestic institutional investors (DIIs) will be monitored.

The key thing to watch out for in the near future would be the US bond yields because any rise in yields can take out the FII money from developing countries like India to western markets and could also be a risk for emerging markets currencies. The dollar index, which measures the US currency against a basket of six peers, will also be closely watched.

India Inc will continue to report its March quarter earnings. SBI Life Insurance Company and Kotak Mahindra Bank are scheduled to announce Q4 results on 3 May 2021. Hero MotoCorp and Tata Consumer Products will declare their Q4 results on 6 May 2021. Dabur India, HDFC will declare their Q4 results on 7 May 2021.

Auto stocks will be in focus as auto companies will start announcing monthly sales numbers for April starting from 1 May 2021. In economic data, Markit Manufacturing PMI for April will be declared on 3 May 2021. Markit Services PMI for April will be declared on 5 May 2021.

On the political front, all eyes will be on the outcome of state assembly elections. Polls were held in West Bengal. State Assembly Elections for 294 seats in West Bengal, 234 seats in Tamil Nadu, 140 seats in Kerala, 126 seats in Assam and 30 seats in the Union Territory of Puducherry is being held between March 27 and April 29. The counting of votes for all states will be held on May 2 and the results will be declared the same day.

Exit polls on Thursday, 29 April 2021 forecasted a tight contest between the incumbent Trinamool Congress (TMC) and the Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) in the high-profile West Bengal assembly polls, while the ruling Left combine was projected to retain power in Kerala and so was the case for BJP in Assam. However, exit polls projected DMK-led opposition alliance as a winner in Tamil Nadu, while the Congress-led alliance was seen losing the neighbouring Puducherry.

On the coronavirus front, investors would continuously watch out government’s course of action along with progress on the vaccination drive. Starting May 1, anyone above 18 years old will be eligible for inoculation.

Updates related to Covid-19 cases, vaccination drive, and state government actions will be closely watched. Total Covid-19 confirmed cases worldwide stood at 15,05,36,843 with 31,65,999 deaths. India reported 31,70,228 active cases of Covid-19 infection and 2,08,330 deaths while 1,53,84,418 patients have been discharged, according to the data from the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Government of India.

Overseas, China will announce the Caixin Composite PMI for April on 6 May 2021.

The US Markit Manufacturing PMI for April will be declared on 3 May 2021.

The Euro Area Markit Manufacturing PMI for April will be declared on 3 May 2021.

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