Will Nifty climb to psychologically important 16,000 level next week?

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Indian stock markets had a positive trading week ended June 25. Headline Nifty50 index closed at a fresh lifetime high of 15,860.  Meanwhile, BSE Sensex also ended at a record close of 52,925 gaining over 226 points.

All the sectoral indices, except FMCG, ended in the green on Friday. Rotational buying across sectors such as metals, capital goods, and IT was seen. India’s fear gauge index, India VIX, also slipped nearly 10% to 13.77.

Bulls regained momentum in the banking space. Nifty Bank rose significantly, gaining 1.5% in Friday’s trade and 2.3% for the week gone by.

Range bound

While the markets continued to witness whipsaws this week, they remained largely within a range as the broader sentiment showed restraint given the absence of any significant developments across both macros and company-specific domains.

Heavyweight Reliance fell over 2% and was the biggest drag to both the benchmarks. The stock was down as equity worth Rs 700 crore changed hands in multiple block deals, a day after its 44th AGM.

Apart from RIL, NTPC, HUL, Titan and Asian Paints, fell the most while Tata Steel, Axis Bank, SBI, ICICI Bank and Hindalco were the top gainers on Friday.

Within the banking space, the PSU Bank index outperformed most (up 5.3% this week); a stock-specific rally within the public banking space is likely to continue.

The 16,000 level remains psychologically important for the market and most analysts believe the markets may hit that level in the coming weeks.

Here’s what experts say investors should do on Monday

Manish Shah, Founder, www.Niftytriggers.com

Nifty closed the week with a candle that closed at the top end of the range of the week. This makes it a bullish candle. This seems to be a trend continuation signal as the averages on the weekly time frame are already in a sharp momentum. The more you look at it the more you are convinced that Nifty is poised to resume its up move after a period of range bound movement.

On the daily time frame, Nifty as been trading below the resistance of 15900-15950 for last couple of weeks. Now it seems that Nifty will start to move above this resistance level. The support trendline and rising moving averages holds at this point. Nifty needs to break and hold above 15,900-15,950 for a couple of days to confirm a break out. With banks, IT and metals showing active buying interest; Nifty could see an extended run on a break above 15,950. Expect a bout of sharp up-move over next two weeks.

Rohit Singre, Technical Analyst at LKP Securities

Nifty managed to hold its bullish stream throughout the day with gains of nearly one percent, forming a bullish candle on the daily chart after two consecutive red candles.

Now supports have again shifted to 15,725-15,650. Any dip will be again buying opportunity around the said levels and we may see some more bounce if the said levels are held. The immediate hurdle is still placed at 15,900 zones.

Ajit Mishra, VP-Research, Religare Broking

The prevailing consolidation in the index is largely in line with the global counterparts, so participants should continue to keep a close watch on the world market for cues.

Despite the positive bias, we’re seeing restricted participation so traders should focus more on the selection of sectors and stocks. On the index front, a decisive break above 15,900 in the Nifty will pave the way for an up move else consolidation will continue.